Monday, September 10, 2007

Q: What is the future of Iraq?

A: Poland 1795

Once upon a time, a long time ago, there was a nation called Poland. It lay between Prussia, Austria, and Russia.

Over a period of about twenty years, Prussia, Austria and Russia got it in its collective mind that Poland served no purpose. So each country sent in some armies, occupied some territory and the next thing you know Poland was gone.

It wasn’t until Napoleon took over most of Europe that Poland came back into existence.

So what does this have to do with Iraq?

Well let’s go back to the beginning in an elementary sort of way. After World War I England and France sat down with a pencil and created Iraq out of the remnants of the defeated Ottoman Empire. Prior to the nation building by pencil, Iraq, a.k.a Mesopotamia, was just another land of scattered tribes united under the Ottoman sultan, living by the word of Muhammad or Ali’s Prophet.

Western Europe needed Iraq. Left unattended that area of the world could fall prey to any one of a number of emerging powers: Bolsheviks, Corporate America or jeepers, the Mesopotamians themselves.

Iraq was and is more a figment of Western European imagination than an indigenous nation state in blossoming mode.

Over time a variety of kings and tyrants kept the figment, erh… I mean dream live.

Today the United States is the keeper of the dream and United States military is holding the dream together. Nobody else seems to want to. Of course, we can’t be there forever. If you look at our history of occupation, Viet Nam, Japan, Germany, Nicaragua, Cuba, the Philippines, at some point we leave. We really don’t like to occupy. We’d rather leave some military bases behind and let corporations spread the spirit of American capitalism.

Make no mistake. We will leave Iraq. It may take 10 months or 10 years. But we will leave. And in our wake we’ll leave one really big ass military base around Basra the will allow us to regulate the transport of Mesopotamian oil to the Persia Gulf.

And then nature will run its course.

The Kurds in the north will set up their own state, maybe in collaboration with the Kurds in Turkey or annex itself to Kurdistan. The Shiites will make a sandbox and align with Iran. The minority Sunni’s will set up a state that most likely will have the support of the US, Western Europe and most importantly Baathist Syria and Wahhabic Saudi Arabia. But there won't be any Iraq as we know it today.

So here’s an idea: Let’s save a few million lives and billions and billions of dollars and send Condoleezza Rice to Baghdad with a big pencil and do what François Georges-Picot and Mark Sykes did in 1915: carve it up in the best interest of the victors.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

The future of Iraq is that of the world's largest welfare state behind Tennesee, I believe. Way to go guys.

10:54 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home